US-Africa AGOA agreement on the line: What is the future for African textiles?

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been a cornerstone of trade relations between the US and sub-Saharan Africa since its adoption in 2000. This agreement offers preferential access to the US market for nearly 7,000 products, including textiles and apparel, provided that beneficiary countries meet strict political and economic criteria.

For many African countries, AGOA has been synonymous with industrial development, job creation and attracting investment, reports Yahoo! News.

However, the political decision made in Washington at the end of September 2025 has reignited uncertainty. The future of the preferential framework is now in doubt, forcing governments, manufacturers and buyers to reassess their strategies.

Why is AGOA essential for African textiles?

The textile and apparel sector has been one of the main beneficiaries of AGOA. Countries such as Lesotho, Madagascar, South Africa, Kenya and Mauritius have seen their textile industries grow thanks to this privileged access to the US market. For example, in 2023, Kenya exported 510 million dollars worth of products under AGOA, according to the United States Trade Representative, while Madagascar exported 339 million dollars. These exports have created thousands of jobs and generated the foreign currency needed for trade balances.

Uncertainty before the renewal of AGOA

As the technical deadline of September 30, 2025, approached, several signals emerged from Washington. These included a re-evaluation of trade priorities, a stated desire for a “targeted approach” to African economic relations, and a review of eligibility conditions. The debate has taken on two main dimensions. On one hand, some US policymakers want to further condition preferential access on strategic interests and supplies, particularly of critical minerals. On the other hand, African countries and private operators are concerned that the end of AGOA could lead to punitive tariffs and a rapid erosion of competitiveness in the US market.

In response to these concerns, the White House has indicated its support for a one-year extension of AGOA, reports Reuters, providing a lifeline to the African countries involved. This extension, while welcome, does not resolve the long-term uncertainties and highlights the need for African countries to diversify their trade partnerships and strengthen their competitiveness.

Potential impacts of an end or reduction of AGOA

If AGOA were to disappear or be significantly reduced, the consequences for the African textile sector would be significant:

• Decline in competitiveness: Products exported under AGOA benefit from decisive tariff advantages. The removal of these advantages would increase export costs and make some products uncompetitive against offers from Asia or Latin America.

• Impact on employment: Entire sectors, often localised (for example, garment manufacturing zones in Lesotho or Madagascar), risk reducing production and announcing job cuts. Estimates indicate that tens of thousands of jobs could be affected in some countries.

• Reduction in foreign currency: The loss of US markets would reduce foreign currency inflows, weakening the ability of countries to finance imports and investments.

• Weakening of value chains: Foreign investors could relocate production to countries offering better access or lower costs, which would weaken the industrial base built over 25 years.

How can African countries adapt?

Faced with these challenges, several strategies can be considered:

• Strengthening local value added: Moving upmarket towards technical textiles; products compliant with environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements; and associated services such as design, finishing and certification.

• Accelerating regional integration: Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to create other regional markets and reduce dependence on a single market.

• Negotiating bilateral agreements: Diversifying trade agreements and obtaining targeted solutions such as sectoral preferences and cumulation of rules of origin agreements.

• Attracting finance and modernising: Investing in energy efficiency, targeted robotisation, training and productivity improvements to offset any potential tariff shock.

A blessing in disguise?

The prospect of a weakened or non-renewed AGOA is a stark reminder of the dependence on foreign political decisions. In the short term, textile sectors and jobs are at risk. In the medium term, this constraint could be a strong incentive for industrial transformation and the diversification of trade partners. For African policymakers and textile manufacturers, the urgency is twofold: to actively negotiate any adjustment to US access and to accelerate the internal transformations that will make their sectors less vulnerable to international political uncertainties.