Black Friday 2025: How EU and US brands are reshaping discount strategies

As the 2025 holiday season approaches, fashion retailers throughout the EU and US are moving into a discounting period defined by caution, compressed shopping calendars and tighter margins. Despite improved consumer sentiment, data platforms like Deloitte and PwC are projecting a year-over-year decline in holiday spending, pushing brands to shift pricing strategies and lean on market intelligence to protect profits.

With Black Friday landing on November 28 and Cyber Monday following on December 1, retailers are facing a shortened promotional window, creating a challenging balancing act of early discounting and capturing enough spend without sacrificing margin through broad markdowns.

Lengthier promotional periods and earlier discounting

Data from fashion benchmarking platform Lectra Retviews points at a structural shift in discounting behaviour across both the US and EU. In the latter, the share of discounted items is gradually shrinking, despite promotions stretching over a longer period. This reflects an increased pressure on retailers to clear inventory amid stabilising yet persistent inflation. The US market mirrors these trends, though discount peaks remain marginally lower than in 2024.

After discounting rose between 2023 and 2024, this year retailers may return to pushing heavier promotions to counter weaker holiday spending forecasts. Retviews noted that July 2025 discounts had dipped marginally year-over-year in both regions, in contrast to January, which saw prolonged markdown periods. Summer reductions remained more conservative and tapered off faster.

Indeed, timing is one of the clearest shifts. In 2025, premium brands began seasonal promotions weeks earlier than last year. Ganni and Tommy Hilfiger initiated sales on October 24, compared to November 14 and November 6 last year. Tommy Hilfiger even positioned its early sale as a “Holiday Head Start”, thus linking October activity to holiday promotions.

Premium US brands like Banana Republic, Guess, and J.Crew also launched holiday offers in late October and early November, aligning with anticipated early shopping behaviour. Yet, despite the head start, communications remained focused on new arrivals and holiday capsules. In contrast, mass-market retailers, such as Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch, leaned more heavily into discount messaging through autumn.

Defining product categories and data-drivers

In the way of products, accessories, specifically wallets and handbags, have shown some of the strongest year-over-year sales growth, up 13 and 10 percent, respectively, across both markets. Denim and outwear also continue to rise, posting 12 and 14 percent YoY gains.

Denim, in particular, is surging. Barrel-leg jeans doubled in the EU and expanded more than 200 percent in the US, while baggy jeans rose in popularity by 28 percent in the US and 30 percent in the EU. Cargo pants, however, are sharply declining, with assortment share falling 50 percent in the US and 54 percent in the EU.

Retviews highlights that bestselling silhouettes, such as Zara’s high-waisted barrel jeans, show frequent full-price stockouts and replenishments, reinforcing their suitability for either minimal or no discounting. Meanwhile, slow movers like Aritzia’s Millie Hi-Rise Cargo Jean show less stock movement prior to eventually being marked down, signaling a potential candidate for earlier or deeper discounting.

As consumer expectations evolve and discount periods stretch, this precision is becoming a valuable tool for retailers. “In 2025’s unpredictable retail landscape, marked by cautious spending and intense pricing competition, brands must react faster and more precisely than ever,” Retviews said in its report.

The company concluded: “To protect margins and boost sell-through, retailers need to identify which products are trending and which require markdowns, planning holiday discounts accordingly. Timing is everything today, with brands starting promotions earlier each year, the real challenge is determining when to discount and at what depth to maximize Black Friday performance.”