French companies resist Paris' call

Paris - Since the publication of the AFP article on Sunday, April 21st, regarding the tensions between major French companies and the political powers — an in-depth piece outlining the positions taken by Bercy to encourage several groups to suspend their American projects — none of the main groups concerned — LVMH, Schneider Electric, CMA CGM — have announced any suspension or withdrawal of their investments in the United States.

Despite the government's solemn appeal to suspend or reconsider investments across the Atlantic, major French groups appear reluctant to curb their expansion. LVMH, Schneider Electric, and CMA CGM have maintained their projects, sometimes even consolidating them. During LVMH's general meeting, Bernard Arnault certainly advocated for a de-escalation of trade tensions, but without questioning the group's American ambitions. The same goes for CMA CGM, whose chairman Rodolphe Saadé recently appeared alongside Donald Trump to announce 20 billion dollars in investments on American soil, with no sign of this momentum changing. As for Schneider, its 700 million dollars industrial projects are still on track.

In the luxury sector, other major names such as Hermès have also not expressed any intention to revise their plans. Hermès, for its part, is maintaining the planned opening of several additional boutiques, notably in Dallas and San Diego, while strengthening its local production to meet growing demand. The group, however, announced that it would increase its prices in the United States in order to offset the customs duties. Lacoste is also continuing its development with the inauguration of a new boutique on 5th Avenue in New York on Thursday, April 10th. Finally, in February 2025, L’Oréal opened a 160 million dollars research and innovation center in New Jersey. This site, which replaces the former facilities in Clark where the company had operated for sixty years, will employ more than 600 people.

Economic pragmatism prevails over political injunctions

This contrast between the political line advocated by Paris and the on-the-ground reality of businesses undoubtedly stems from a pragmatic interpretation of the major trends shaping global trade today. Isabelle Mateos y Lago's macroeconomic analysis, chief economist at BNP Paribas, clearly articulates a radical reshuffling: the United States now displays an average external tariff of around 25% – “Once the tariff policy is stabilized, we can hope it will be lower,” indicates Isabelle Mateos y Lago in article on BNP’s website, “But it is unlikely to be significantly below 15%, which is more than five times higher than at the beginning of the year and its highest level since the signing of the GATT in 1947.'"

A new American industrial sovereignty

In other words, the United States is redefining its position in the global trade order, refocusing on a form of targeted industrial sovereignty. For the Trump administration, the objective is twofold: to finance tax cuts by increasing customs revenues, and to protect sectors deemed strategic – automotive, steel, aluminum, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals. These tariff increases are not without internal effects: they constitute the largest increase in indirect taxes in decades, undermine consumer and business confidence, and hinder any possibility of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. In the longer term, they will pose a major competitive dilemma for American firms, which will see the price of their inputs rise compared to their foreign competitors, risking a lasting loss of productivity.

Global contagion: contraction, caution, and disinflation

On the international front, the contagion effects are just as powerful – but not necessarily in the expected direction. Far from an inflationary effect, the American tariff shock is currently acting as a powerful disinflationary, even deflationary, vector. Global demand is contracting, energy prices are falling, and major economies, facing uncertainty, are reducing their investments. Several countries have already chosen to eliminate their import tariffs on American goods rather than engage in a spiral of retaliation. China, on the other hand, has adopted a more radical stance: massive punitive tariffs, coupled with a "clearance" strategy – a wave of discounted manufactured goods, pushed for export, risks flooding third markets, particularly European ones.

Washington, between assumed rupture and rent of power

This context opens a period of major restructuring. Washington seems ready to renounce its historical role as guarantor of the multilateral trade system, while continuing to benefit from the attributes of its financial power: unlimited access to capital markets, the dollar's status, legal extraterritoriality. A form of assumed "cakeism", says Isabelle Mateos y Lago, – having one's cake and eating it too, like during Brexit.

Europe in search of strategic leverage

And what about Europe in all this? According to BNP, the Old Continent has numerous structural advantages to cushion the shock: a vast internal market, a clear investment strategy (defense, energy transition, infrastructure...), a predictable institutional framework, and above all a strong weight in services – a sector in which the United States is dependent on exports to the EU. It remains to be seen whether this room for maneuver will be converted into political leverage – or whether companies, by constantly pursuing their immediate interests, will not end up collectively weakening Europe's position.

The awakening of markets: capital in motion

This strategic realignment is not only reflected in political speeches or industrial investment decisions: it is also embodied, very concretely, in capital movements. The latest figures published on Monday, April 21st by ZoneBourse confirm a spectacular shift in investor preferences. European equity funds attracted more than 11 billion dollars net in one week, while American funds experienced withdrawals of more than 10 billion dollars. In parallel, flows have also intensified towards Asia, which captured nearly 3.6 billion dollars in net purchases over the same period.