India e-commerce market to cross 200 billion dollars in 2025: GlobalData

India's e-commerce market is forecast to grow by 12.5 percent in 2025, projected to reach 17.7 trillion rupees (211.6 billion dollars), driven by strong consumer appetite for online shopping and growing trust in digital payments. This rapid expansion reflects deeper digital integration, supportive government policies, and the rising adoption of AI-driven payment innovations.

According to GlobalData’s E-Commerce Analytics, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5 percent between 2025 and 2029, reaching 27.3 trillion rupees (326.7 billion dollars) in 2029.

Poornima Chinta, senior banking and payments analyst at GlobalData, noted that the growth is supported by broader digital adoption, increased internet and smartphone penetration, the availability of secure online payment tools, and the popularity of major online shopping events like Flipkart’s Big Billion Days and Amazon’s Great Indian Festival.

Government initiatives are significantly boosting e-commerce sales, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts on essentials, electronics, and fashion, which took effect on September 22, 2025. Leading firms like Reliance Retail, Amazon, and Flipkart are participating in the "GST Bachat Utsav" campaign, which requires retailers to display these discounts on invoices. The sector is also seeing growth driven by private-sector initiatives, such as Amazon's partnership with Startup India in December 2024 to support startups' e-commerce businesses through mentorship and technology access. Technological advancements, including a pilot program launched in October 2025 by the National Payments Corporation of India, Razorpay, and OpenAI, are further accelerating online retail by integrating UPI within ChatGPT for direct in-chat payments.

Alternative methods remain the preferred e-commerce payment options, driven by the convenience and security of digital wallets and the strong preference for Unified Payments Interface (UPI)-based mobile payments. Payment cards are the second most popular method, with credit cards favoured over debit cards due to value-added benefits like instalment options and reward programs. Card usage is expected to increase further, with banks partnering with retailers, as evidenced by the State Bank of India's (SBI) August 2025 launch of the Flipkart SBI Co-Branded Credit Card.

Chinta concluded that India's e-commerce market will continue its upward growth trajectory, with the convergence of a young demographic, alternative payment solutions, favorable regulatory initiatives, and technological advancements transforming how Indians shop.