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Is Inditex undervalued or overvalued?

By Don-Alvin Adegeest


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Zara store Credits: Inditex

Is Inditex undervalued or overvalued? The valuation of the world’s largest retailer, the parent company of renowned brands like Zara, Massimo Dutti, and Pull & Bear, has been a topic of extensive discussion among analysts. While some argue that the stock is undervalued, others have proposed long-term forecasts, projecting a potential increase in Inditex's share price. As of the current market scenario, Inditex is trading at around 38 euros per share, down from 43 euros per share in the middle of the year.

Undervalued or overvalued: Divergent Analyses

The bullish perspective presents a positive outlook for Inditex's future stock performance. Traders Union forecasts that by the end of 2024, the share price could reach 50.37 EUR, followed by a projected increase to 53.2 EUR by mid-2025. This optimistic forecast considers Inditex's strong portfolio of brands and its historical outperformance in comparison to peers and the broader market.

Conversely, a more cautious stance is taken by some analysts, with Deutsche Bank AG's Adam Cochrane notably downgrading Inditex from "hold" to "sell,” reported Bloomberg.

This move aligns with a broader assessment of the European retailing scene, signalling concerns about the challenges faced by the industry as a whole.

Cochrane's perspective is rooted in skepticism regarding Inditex's growth ambitions. Despite the company's commendable track record, some analysts argue that sustaining sales growth will necessitate increased marketing expenditure, strategic collaborations with celebrities and influencers, and additional investments in stores to enhance service levels, Bloomberg wrote.

According to Cochrane, embracing marketing strategies, engaging in partnerships, and improving the in-store experience are imperative for Inditex to maintain its growth trajectory. However, this comes with associated costs and uncertainties, contributing to a more cautious outlook on the stock.

The divergence in opinions among analysts has likely contributed to market volatility, prompting shareholders to reevaluate their positions.

The current share price of around 38 euros reflects this uncertainty and the ongoing debate surrounding Inditex's true market value.