Kingpins 2025: How trade conflicts and inflation are affecting the denim industry

In October, the SugarFactory event hall in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, traditionally turns indigo blue. Denim professionals and enthusiasts gather there for Kingpins, the leading denim trade show where new innovations and trends are presented. During the October edition, amidst the enthusiasm, there was also a sense of concern. How severely are US import tariffs, inflation, and cautious consumers affecting the denim industry?

Y2K denim and a focus on construction

A first impression of the trade fair confirms that denim, however timeless, always moves with fashion. The same trends seen on the catwalks of denim-embracing brands like Veronica Beard and Collina Strada were also visible at Kingpins.

The silhouette remains wide but is becoming slightly slimmer, think 'cigarette' styles. Designer Sina Steidinger, a regular visitor to the trade show, said: “If we move back towards a slim-fit, it will mainly be straight from the knee down. I don’t see skinny jeans making a comeback anytime soon.”

What she also noticed is that ecru denim is still ubiquitous and denim is becoming heavier again, with a clearly visible texture. She also saw a lot of striped denim, not as a print but created by deliberately weaving a coarser white thread into the warp. “That creates a striped, typical 'Y2K' effect,” said Steidinger. With that trendy era in mind, producers at the trade fair also presented many innovative washes with a worn-in, vintage look.

US tariffs

The US import tariffs on textiles and clothing, a consequence of the trade war between China and the US under President Donald Trump, are having an impact on the denim industry. The levies, which vary in percentage by country, make production in China significantly more expensive. This is causing many brands to shift their sourcing and production to other Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

Caitac Denim, a Los Angeles-based company representing Japanese mills such as Kaihara and Yoshiwa, is seeing a sharp increase in interest in Japanese denim. Representative Kevin Phu showed two fabrics, one produced by a US mill and the other by a Japanese mill. Normally, the Japanese fabric is almost twice as expensive, but due to the tariffs, that price difference has disappeared. Phu explained: “For a higher quality, like Japanese denim, you get a relatively better price. The Japanese fabrics are stronger and have a deeper indigo colour than the American ones. We are now sold out for over a year.”

He added that the Japanese style is currently popular with fashion brands. "There are very few machines left that can make really good selvedge denim. They are almost all Japanese." Other producers also confirmed that Japanese denim is in high demand. Delivery times are increasing from eight weeks to sometimes a year and a half. Walter Manfroi of Italian denim maker Blue Men reported that their demand is 40 times higher than last year.

Production shifts to Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan

Celine Chen of Advance Denim, a major denim manufacturer in China, confirmed the trend: “Because the tariffs in China are higher than in Vietnam, many brands are moving their production there. We are already preparing to move machinery to Vietnam.” In addition to Vietnam, brands are increasingly choosing Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Pakistan, she stated.

Mansoor Aslam, a representative for the Pakistani Artistic Fabric Mills, has noticed the difference: “More and more brands are approaching us, especially in the last six months. Previously, we couldn’t compete with Chinese prices, but now we can. Just like during the Covid-19 period, this is creating new business opportunities for us.”

Inflation and uncertainty

The financial situation within the fashion industry is precarious. Companies are reporting shrinking profit margins and increasing risks in their supply chains. Keith O’Brien, representing Isko (part of the Turkish Sanko Group) at the trade show, stated: “Both the tariffs and inflation are causing major price fluctuations and uncertainty throughout the entire supply chain. Consumers are feeling it too; the cost of living is rising, so they are becoming more frugal with consumer products like clothing.”

Isko is trying to arm itself by controlling all its activities through vertical integration: “Because our parent company is also our yarn and fibre supplier, we can better control prices. At the same time, this makes it easier for us to focus on recycling and building take-back schemes for brands, to support them with new EU regulations.”

Organic cotton less popular

A notable side effect of the financial uncertainty is that producers are seeing a decline in demand for organic cotton. Gunes Zabun from Turkish clothing producer Yiltem Konfeksiyon said: “Almost no brand is asking for it anymore. They are already struggling; they are ordering less and are under price pressure. Organic cotton is more expensive, so for now, it’s not popular. Major brands might include a few items for their image, because their sustainability rules require it.”

According to Zabun, fashion and the environment are diametrically opposed. “It remains a business.” She does see merit in efficiency improvements in factories, which save costs and, in her view, are often more effective for sustainability: “Many Turkish producers have made their factories more sustainable in recent years. For example, we use solar energy and recycled water. That saves a huge amount of energy and water.”

Criticism of certifications

At Kingpins, there was broader criticism of the use of sustainability labels. Several parties indicated that they doubt the reliability of certifications for organic cotton. Alejandro Pérez of the Spanish company Tejidos Royo said: “A lot of brands sell so-called organic cotton, but in reality, only 5 percent of the world’s cotton production is truly organic. The figures just don’t add up.”

Manfroi of Blue Men is also critical. He pointed out that certification itself has become a major industry, with large companies of hundreds of employees profiting handsomely from it: “I recently received a request from a German client for 44 certificates. If I were to implement all of that, it would cost me 130,000 euros a year. And ultimately, the consumer pays that bill. Is that ethically responsible?”

Kingpins 2025 Credits: Anna Roos van Wijngaarden

This article was translated to English using an AI tool.

OR CONTINUE WITH

Denim

Kingpins

Sustainability

Trade show